Sarnia

Ontario Farmland Value Posts Another Double-Digit Increase

Farm Credit Canada reports the average value of farmland in Canada went up 14 point 3 per cent in 2014.

That compares with increases of just over 22 per cent in 2013 and 19 and a half per cent in 2012.

The average value of Canadian farmland has increased every year since 1993.

Here in Ontario, farmland values increased an average of 12 point 4 per cent in 2014.

That follows gains of just under 16 per cent in 2013 and just over 30 per cent in 2012.

FCC says average farmland values in Ontario have continued to rise since 1988.

Chief Economist J. P. Gervais says one of the ways to try to determine whether farmland is potentially over-valued is the ratio of farmland price to crop receipts.

In Ontario, he says that ratio was 19 point 1 in 2014 - higher than the long-term average of 12 point 4.

According to Gervais, that number is cause for pause.

However, he suggests current low interest rates can help explain the strong valuation relative to crop receipts.

He says a higher price-to-receipts ratio can also be justified on the basis of expected growth in agriculture.

The FCC economist won't rule out the possibility that farmland values in some of the most expensive land areas have peaked.

He says that could mean the market will moderate or retreat at some future point similar to what has happened recently in the U-S.

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