Environment Canada Meteorologist Peter Kimbell won't rule out the possibility of a tornado completely, but he says the chance is extremely low.
Environment Canada forecasts showers and a risk of thunderstorms Friday evening, but it has not issued a severe weather warning as of yet. It may issue a warning if the conditions warrant it. The agency is closely watching a line of thunderstorms over western Michigan.
The National Weather Service says there's a chance we could get "isolated tornadoes" and hail "to 1-inch diameter" in Detroit this evening when a line of thunderstorms moves into the region. It forecasts the storms for between 6pm and midnight Friday.
However, Kimbell says there are a number of factors that make a tornado very unlikely.
"It's not a zero chance, so it is possible," he says. "But the lakes are still quite cold. That has a significant dampening effect, and the convection is supposed to arrive in the Windsor area probably around sunset, so the sun doesn't have much of an input either anymore. The probability is low."
He says the bigger risk Friday night will be the wind.
"If we do get some severe thunderstorms this evening, there is a fair amount of wind aloft. [That's] basically 80 to 90 km/hr," says Kimball. "We could see some of that descend down to the surface, so gusts in that order are possible -- probably a little bit less than that."
Tornados are very rare in February. They are most likely between mid-April to the end of October in southwestern Ontario.
