If Ontario is going to flatten the curve of infections during the third wave of the pandemic, it's going to take a six-week lockdown and 100,000 vaccinations per day.
If that doesn't happen, Ontario's top doctors say a 'normal' summer is at risk.
The latest modelling from the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table shows high COVID-19 case rates will persist throughout the summer if stronger public health measures aren't taken.
"If we have a very strong adherence to the public health measures, if we are able to really tamp down on the spread of the virus right now and if we're able to get as many vaccines as we can into arms...you see very low case numbers by the end of June, you see the receding of the pandemic," said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown.
Modelling suggests if the province stays on the current path there could be upwards of 15,000 new cases a day by mid-June. With no measures, cases could soar to over 30,000 a day. These numbers assume 100,000 people a day are being vaccinated.
The advisory table is also advising the province to concentrate vaccination efforts even further in hot-spot areas to help bring down the numbers overall.
No matter what scenario is followed, the ICU occupancy rate is expected to go above 1,000 patients in the next two weeks. At this level, doctors may need to make difficult decisions about who to put in those beds.
