Fall Leaves. (Photo by © Can Stock Photo / rbiedermann) Fall Leaves. (Photo by © Can Stock Photo / rbiedermann)
Sarnia

'Undecided' models point to volatile fall season

Friday marks the last official day of summer, however, the beginning of fall is expected to include a few warm and sunny days.

Autumn will officially arrive on Saturday, September 23 at 2:50 a.m.

Environment Canada Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Trudy Kidd said the beginning of fall in southwestern Ontario will include normal temperatures of around 20 C, 68 F with drier than normal conditions.

Daytime highs will gradually begin to cool in October with mostly cloudy conditions.

Kidd said typical daytime temperatures for most parts of southwestern Ontario will likely hover around 14 C, 57 F in October and 8 C, 46 F in November.

The fall forecast for October and November may be "volatile" as models are "undecided" on what the season ahead will be like.

"Some of our models are showing normal conditions for temperature and they're not really giving us a clear signal about whether it'll be wetter or drier than normal. That being said, I've also seen some indications and predictions of above normal and below normal temperatures for the season to come," said Kidd. "I think we can all expect a pretty typical fall where one day you're wearing shorts and a T-shirt... soaking in the sunshine, and the next you're looking for where you put your toque."

During the month of October, Kidd said regions will begin to see fewer frost advisories as we creep out of the growing season.

"For areas like London and Sarnia, we're actually going to be ending the frost advisory time of year coming up in mid-October," she said. "Windsor's frost advisory end dates are toward the end of October." 

El Nino is expected to bring dry and warmer conditions than normal but Kidd said typically, Ontario isn't affected by the phase until the winter months.

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