Lambton College has started the unfortunate process of cutting jobs as a drop in international student enrolment could impact about a quarter of the school's workforce.
The federal government introduced a cap on the number of study permits in 2024, as well as changes to the post-graduation work permit program.
Lambton College President and CEO Rob Kardas said changes announced in January 2024 resulted in the school pausing their public-private partnerships with schools in Toronto and Mississauga, and the subsequent announcement in September 2024 affected enrolment in Sarnia.
Kardas said Lambton College is "well positioned" with over 30 programs that are eligible under the post-graduation work permit program, but 18 programs, primarily for international students, have been suspended.
While international students continue to be welcomed at the Sarnia campus, Lambton College projects that international enrolment could decrease by as much as 50 per cent for the fall of 2026.
Kardas said ultimately, changes will result in a loss of approximately $30 million to $35 million in contribution (meaning revenue minus expenses) in total.
"We're just sorting this out now, in terms of where we're going to start to really feel the effects of that is in the 2025-2026 budget," he said. "We've actually overperformed in the 2024-2025 budget - we'll still have a surplus, but we do expect, for the first time in 20 years, to flip to a deficit situation in 2025-2026. We're just finalizing what that's going to look like."
In terms of job losses, Kardas said the school is currently working with its two local unions as "employment stability processes" have started.
"Certainly job loss is unfortunately the most difficult part of this but it's something we need to go through in order to right size the college and reset ourselves here a little bit based on the new reality that we're facing," he said.
At the end of the day, Kardas said roughly 20 to 25 per cent of the school's workforce will likely be impacted.
"I don't know how many jobs that is because some of that could be part time jobs that add up to full-time. It's hard to know at this point," he said. "We'll probably know better in the next few months."
Kardas said the current sector-wide challenges have paused some capital projects, but the school will move forward with plans for a new residence.
"We're just waiting on some government approvals so we can formally announce something," he said.
As post-secondary institutions move forward with fewer new international students, Kardas said the changes exposed a structural funding program within the system.
"I look forward to working with our provincial government on ways that we can rework that to sustain the sector," he said.
Kardas said no significant discussions have been held yet as the recent provincial election and ongoing tariff dispute with the U.S. have pushed back those conversations. But he's hopeful discussions will be held sometime this spring or fall.
He said in the meantime, new program development will be a key part of the college's strategy.
"We're in the midst of talking to different industries about some of the needs here locally and regionally to do that," he said.
On the flip side, Kardas said domestic enrolment continues "to trend in the right direction".
"I believe applications are up eight per cent for September 2025," he said.
For the fall 2024 term, domestic enrolment was up nearly 10 per cent.