Lots of talk about the upcoming WASDE report in this week's Grain Farmers of Ontario grain market commentary.
Analyst Marty Hibbs says corn contracts hit overhead resistance at 3.70 to 3.80 a bushel and are now settling back ahead of that November 10th report.
He doesn't expect wheat prices to go above the 5.50 to 5.60 range until after that report.
Hibbs suggests we could see those contracts drop to around 5 dollars before the 10th.
The GFO analyst believes soybean futures are also waiting for next week's WASDE report.
However, he also says soybeans could break hard if the 9 dollar support level fails on a retest, given the volatility we've been seeing in bean prices.
Overall, Hibbs says the short term indicators are positive for corn, soybeans and wheat.
He says the main trend for both corn and wheat is down while soybean's main trend remains bearish.
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Grain Farmers of Ontario Market Commentary:
CORN: Corn farmers south of the border have moved 19% of their crop in the barn, five points more than expected and one of the strongest levels of progress for any week in the past 20 years. However, at 65% complete, the farmers still remain eight percent behind the pace typically seen at harvest by this time of year. The lag is contributed to a late spring sowing season and a cool summer, coupled with wet autumn conditions. The quick pace allowed Corn Belt farmers to catch up on sowing of winter wheat, which has been delayed by the slow pace of this land coming free. On the charts, corn is behaving the best of our three grains when it comes to finding a bottom. After hitting the overhead resistance at $3.70-$3.80 we are now settling back ahead of the WASDE report on November 10. Interim support is seen at $3.50 basis the December contract and any close in the coming weeks above the $4.20 could indicate a long overdue trend change to the upside. Short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: U.S. Soybean harvest progressed quicker than expected last week – so fast that Corn Belt elevators are running out of space, although the strong pace allowed some catch-up on wheat plantings. U.S. growers gathered in 13% of their soybeans in the week to November 2, more than the 11% that analysts had forecast, and taking the harvest to 83% completion, bang in line with the average pace. On the charts, like wheat, our overhead resistance area was challenged last week. We are now awaiting the WASDE report on November 10 for direction. Unlike corn and wheat, the charts are telling us that soybeans are more likely to break hard if the $9.00 support level fails on a retest, due to the volatility we’ve seen in bean prices. As of this writing we are trading at $10.10 per bushel based on the November contract. The short term indicators are positive but the main trend remains bearish. WHEAT:
USDA scouts in Indiana say, "there is some concern that the delayed harvest may prevent some farmers from getting wheat planted before winter arrives." The data also revealed some deterioration in condition of the winter wheat crop in the wet Corn Belt states, with the wheat rated "good" or "excellent" a strong 64% in Illinois and 58% in Missouri. The overall U.S. winter wheat crop rating remained stable at 59%, again presenting some disappointment. On the charts: The $5.50 -$5.60 range has proven to be the barrier that we anticipated. With the USDA WASDE report out on November 10th, it is unlikely that we will break above that range until after the report. It’s more likely we will see a pullback and could even possibly test the $5.00 level before the report. The $5.70 level on the December chart remains the major resistance but a strong close above it, could be the signal that we could be forming a bottom and a possible trend change. Short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down.
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
