Grain Farmers of Ontario says traders are expecting Statistics Canada to peg Canada's fall wheat crop at 27 point 8 million tonnes.
That's up from the 27 point 5 million October estimate, but down sharply from last year's record 37 point 5 million tonnes.
The GFO weekly commentary also mentions a Reuters report suggesting buyers of Canadian wheat are increasingly complaining about quality ever since the federal government changed how it's crop is sold and inspected.
Analyst Marty Hibbs says the chart trend for wheat is now up with support at 5.57 and major support at 5.25 on March.
Hibbs says the main trend for corn is still down, after what he calls a sideways week.
A Reuters survey puts the 2014 Canadian crop at 11 point 6 million tonnes - up from the earlier 11 point 4 million prediction , but down from last year's 14 point 2 million tonne harvest.
And Hibbs says both short and long term indicators are negatives for soybeans, which he says remain the most bearish of the grains.
The commentary quotes Brazil's largest state as estimating soybean output there at 27 point 89 million tonnes, compared with last year's 26 point 29 million.
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Grain Farmers of Ontario Weekly Grain Market Commentary:
CORN: A Reuters survey puts the 2014 Canadian corn crop at 11.6 million tonnes at the end of November, up from 11.4 million previously but down on 14.2 million a year ago. On the charts: After a sideways week, corn failed to penetrate the $4.00 level and reverse the trend; and as of this writing, we are sitting at $3.80 on the March contract. We could see a pull-back going into delivery of the December contract month. Overhead resistance is pegged at $3.90 with major resistance at the $4.15-$4.25 basis the March contract. Support is seen at at $3.50-$3.60. The main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest producing state, estimated output for 2015 at 27.89 million tonnes versus 26.29 million a year ago. They see plantings at 8.87 million hectares versus 8.44 million a year ago On the charts: Both short and long term indicators are negative as soybeans remain the most bearish of the grains. A possible test of the $9.15 level could be in the cards and from a technical point of view, it is an important level. Our long term indicators are slowing which raises the possibility that we could see a trend reversal after the Christmas holidays but for now they remain in a downtrend. Support is seen at the $9.75 level and then again at the important $9.00 - $9.20 basis the January contract.
WHEAT: Traders expect StatsCan to peg Canada's fall wheat crop at 27.8 million tonnes on December 4, up from the 27.5 million estimated in October, but down sharply on last year's record 37.5 million tonnes. Meanwhile, a report from Reuters suggests buyers of Canadian wheat are increasingly complaining about quality ever since Ottawa changed how its biggest crop is sold and inspected, raising the risk the world's third largest exporter will lose sales to rivals like the United States. On the charts: Our $6.00 target was reached and surpassed this week as the market closed December 3 at $6.03 on our March contract. This gave us our confirmation that wheat has turned bullish. With that being said, we can expect a correction before attempting another assault on the resistance level of $6.10-$6.20 basis the March contract. Trend is now up with support seen at $5.75 and major support at $5.25 on March.
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
