Not a lot of optimism in this week's Grain Farmers of Ontario market commentary.
Analyst Marty Hibbs says the short and long term trends for corn are still negative, with the intermediate trend remaining neutral.
He's got all the soybean indicators bearish.
Hibbs suggests the big question with beans is whether we'll see a rally in February before the markets challenge the October lows of 9 dollars.
The GFO analyst has the short, medium and long term indicators for wheat all running negative.
Hibbs says wheat will need a lot of work to turn the market back into a bullish scenario.
This week's commentary also points out that recent USDA figures show domestic and global ending corn stocks will be lower than had been expected, while global wheat ending stocks are now expected to be higher than earlier forecast.
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Grain Farmers of Ontario Weekly Market Commentary:
CORN: The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) January report showed domestic ending stocks for corn at 1.877 billion bushels, which was smaller than expected. Global ending stocks, at 171.64 million metric tonnes, were smaller than expected. On the charts: We are approaching the January 14 low of $3.75 on March corn as of this writing (January 28). On the downside, technical support is found at $3.55-$3.65 based on the March contract. The Short and long term trends are still negative while the intermediate trend remains neutral.
SOYBEANS: On the charts: We finally closed below the $9.75 support level on the March contract. The big question is whether or not we will get a rally in February before we challenge the October lows of $9. In any case, unless fundamentals change, we are destined to test the $9 levels based on the lead month. All indicators at this time are still bearish, confirming the downtrend that has been in place since June 2014.
WHEAT: According to USDA data, the global wheat ending stocks were larger than expected at 82.38 million metric tonnes. On the charts: The wheat is testing $5 as of this writing (January 28). This should prove to be no more than a temporary support level as the old bottom of $4.70 is looming large and in need of a retest to confirm support at that level. Short, medium and long term indicators are negative. The wheat will need a lot of work to turn this market back to a bullish scenario. The main trend remains down.
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
