The Northern Tornadoes Project out of Western University in London is calling for better tornado warning and reporting.
Dr. David Sills, Executive Director of the project, says Canada was given a failing grade of 33 percent on an assessment for tornado warnings and reporting from 2019-2021.
The number improved to 56 percent in 2022, but ultimately, Sills says they're calling for more tornado warnings when storms begin showing signs of potential tornado activity.
"A lot of times the tornadoes just didn't have any warnings or if a warning was issued, it was late. So that was the number one recommendation (to Environment Canada), you can't increase the scores unless you increase the number of tornado warnings you're issuing on tornadic storms," Dr. Sills explained.
Dr. Sills says between the first and second assessment, Environment Canada doubled the number of tornado watches and warnings they put out under the NTP's recommendation. He adds the technology and radar equipment is there to better equip forecasters and Environment Canada to spot telltale signs of tornadoes as early as possible and issue more watches and warnings that could ultimately save lives.
"As soon as you see an indication on radar that it may be occurring, the target lead time for tornado warnings in Canada, it's very similar to the U.S., it's only about 10 minutes. Like you've only got minutes to work with," Sills shared.
With that small of a window, Dr. Sills says it's all the more critical that more watches and warnings are issued, because even if a tornado doesn't occur, people are at least aware that it could have. That way, when one does potentially touch down, people know it's serious because a watch came first hopefully, followed by a warning.
Those are two very different things, as Dr. Sills points out. A watch means that there is potentially risky storm cells in the area that could be ideal for tornadic activity, and a warning means that a cell is displaying potential tornado behaviour right now and people in that given area should take precautions.
If a tornado watch is issued in your area, Dr. Sills says that's a good opportunity to close up windows, garage doors and other openings on your home, because if wind from a tornado gets inside it makes it more likely that the roof of the structure can come off. He adds that a tornado watch stage is a good time to tie down or secure anything on your property that could become potentially deadly debris.
Once a warning is in place, taking shelter in a basement if it's available is a great step, and ensuring you stay away from windows, doorways, walls and other debris could save your life. Don't go to the window and try to record the storm on your phone. As Dr. Sills points out, most tornado injuries occur from being hit by debris.
With respect again to forecasting these storms, Dr. Sills adds that forecasters need to have confidence in their tech and training to spot signs of tornadic activity in a storm cell, like rotation, precipitation and winds.
"Tornadic storms that do produce tornadoes that can be catastrophic typically have a rotation signature that you can see on radar. With Doppler radar, you're not only able to see the precipitation that's occurring, but also the winds that are moving that precipitation around," noted Sills.
Dr. Sills says that Environment Canada has installed a new radar technology network across the country that enables dual polarization, which can actually highlight the shape and other features of what's being seen on radar. That can also enable a tornado debris signature, where forecasters and researchers can actually see debris that a tornado is throwing around.
Of course, Dr. Sills says once the debris signature is seen that means a tornado has already touched down, and it ultimately all comes back to ensuring that Environment Canada and forecasters have the means to better identify and better warn of problematic storms that could produce tornadoes.
He also points out that Ontario specifically has many agricultural and rural areas that don't always offer up the best cell network service, and more work needs to continue to be done to improve network coverage so everyone can receive notifications of watches and warnings as promptly as possible.
You can find out more about the Northern Tornadoes Project here: https://www.uwo.ca/ntp/index.html.