The Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC) is reporting the threat of U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty has eroded much of the confidence businesses have built over the past year.
The OCC’s 2025 Ontario Economic Report (OER) showed a significant rise in business confidence during 2024, climbing from a historic low of 13 per cent to 26 per cent by the end of the year.
Since the uncertainty of U.S. tariffs began, business confidence has dropped dramatically to just 15 per cent, almost erasing all of last year’s gains, according to the OCC’s separate tariff survey in early February.
It said affordability and the cost of living continue to be the most pressing concerns for businesses with rising costs and ongoing productivity and labour challenges posing risks to sustained growth.
According to the research, high costs remain the top concern for businesses, with 78 per cent citing the cost of living, followed by inflation (62 per cent), housing affordability (57 per cent), and rising operational costs (51 per cent).
"Chatham-Kent is deeply connected to the U.S. economy, as are so many communities across Ontario and Canada, disrupting this vital trade relationship through tariffs would have serious consequences. It's not just about the big numbers; it's about the jobs, businesses, and families here in Chatham-Kent that depend on cross-border trade. We need to strengthen, not break, these mutually beneficial ties to ensure a prosperous future for both our community and our trading partners," said Chatham-Kent Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Rory Ring.
The OCC also noted that this recent research showed that with tariffs in play, 60 per cent of business decision makers would lack confidence in Ontario’s economic outlook.
The OCC found that simplifying or reducing business taxes (42 per cent) is the most frequently cited policy solution to improve economic conditions, followed by affordable housing (32 per cent), health system capacity (30 per cent) and workforce development to solve labour shortages (29 per cent).
“While Ontario businesses are more confident than they were a year ago, our economy should still be labelled ‘Fragile: handle with care’,” said Ontario Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Daniel Tisch. “The recent U.S. tariff threat is a call to action to both government and business, telling us that we must enhance both Ontario’s competitiveness and its resilience in an unstable world.”
Despite the challenges, respondents report relative optimism about their own business growth prospects. Nearly half (49 per cent) express confidence in their own future, citing factors such as strong consumer demand, innovation, and improved inflation management.
Business leaders also said they're confident in their ability to adapt to ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada with nearly half (48 per cent) reporting confidence, while 32 per cent are neutral and only 15 per cent expressing a lack of confidence.
“The Chatham-Kent Chamber of Commerce plays a vital role in ensuring the voices of local businesses are heard. This data reinforces what we hear from our members every day -- the need for policies that ease cost pressures, streamline regulations, and create a stable, competitive environment for growth,” said Chatham-Kent Chamber of Commerce Chair B.J. Griffiths.
The business confidence survey was conducted between October 15 and December 2, 2024 and gathered insights from 1,714 respondents representing a diverse range of industries, regions, and organizations.
In response to ongoing tariff threats from the U.S., the OCC commissioned a separate Leger survey from February 4-10, 2025 to assess the potential impact on the business community.
Click here for the full report.